The 5-block radius rule

PORCH TALK

Hello neighbors,

While headlines blare about national interest rate shifts or housing policy debates, smart local investors are watching the quiet stuff. For example, a random PODS container in a driveway, a skip bin on a Tuesday morning, a “We Buy Houses” postcard cluster in a specific ZIP.

This week, we’re zooming in on the non-obvious signals that help you get ahead:

• How N1-B and TOD Could Boost Your ROI.

• A simple gentrification detection tool based on block-level reconnaissance.

• How to read permit signage like a street-level stock ticker.

• A hot take on why you should avoid high-end new builds in South End.

• A couple of deals on our radar.

You’ll walk away from this issue knowing how to predict the future — not by luck, but by local clues.

MARKET WATCH

• Median Home Price: $439,900 (Up 3.02% MoM)

• Mortgage Rates (30yr fixed): 6.68%

• Median Rent (3BR): $2,150/Month

• Rental Vacancy Rate: ~12.8%

• Top ROI Zip Code (May): 28206 – Cap Rate: ~5.4%

MONEY MOVE

How N1-B and TOD Could Boost Your ROI

Smart Charlotte investors aren’t just buying buildings, they’re buying zoning potential.

In Charlotte’s urban core, zoning changes like N1-B and TOD overlays are quietly turning sleepy lots into profit machines. If you understand how zoning shifts impact density, use, and value, you can buy ahead of the curve and let the city’s growth do the heavy lifting.

What’s N1-B?

N1-B (Neighborhood 1-B) is a gentle density residential zoning that allows for:

• Duplexes by right.

• Higher lot coverage.

• Detached ADUs (Accessory Dwelling Units).

• Narrower minimum lot widths.

Translation: You can buy a single-family home, add a second unit (or two), and double your cash flow, all without a major rezoning.

Where to look:

• Westerly Hills.

• Revolution Park.

• Grier Heights.

• Older corridors just outside the Loop, where tear-downs are happening quietly.

What’s TOD (Transit-Oriented Development)?

TOD zoning is tied to light rail corridors and encourages dense, walkable development. It allows for:

• Increased height (up to 5–12 stories in some cases).

• Multi-family and mixed-use projects.

• Minimal parking requirements.

Translation: If you buy land within a TOD overlay (especially near Scaleybark, Sugar Creek, or 36th Street stations), you’re buying into density + location = long-term value.

TOD Hot Zones to Watch:

• East Sugar Creek (still underdeveloped, but zoning-ready).

• Scaleybark/Clanton Park (undergoing massive transformation).

• NoDa fringe areas (past 36th Street, where developers haven’t gone wild yet).

The Move:

• Buy underutilized lots in these zones now before institutional investors swoop in.

• Look for homes on oversized lots where ADUs or duplex conversions are feasible under N1-B.

• For TOD, even small lots can flip for 2–3X once a buyer with development capacity enters the scene.

Bonus Play:

• Pair your zoning play with grant-funded infrastructure improvements (greenways, sidewalks, bike lanes). These often signal where the next wave of development is headed.

Zoning is the cheat code to real estate ROI. Investors who learn Charlotte’s Unified Development Ordinance (UDO) will eat for the next decade, while everyone else chases overpriced flips.

THE PLAYBOOK

The 5-Block Radius Rule

Before the realtors start calling it “up-and-coming,” there are signals, and they cluster. Enter the 5-Block Radius Rule.

Here’s how it works:

1. Identify a single spark — a new cafe, a boutique yoga studio, or even a food truck pop-up that draws a new crowd.

2. Draw a 5-block radius around it (use Google Maps satellite for roof condition, lot sizes, and street layout).

3. Boots on the Ground Recon (BGR): Walk or drive the area every 2 weeks. What are you looking for?

   • Dumpsters in driveways.

   • Renovation crews midday.

   • Exterior cosmetic upgrades (new doors, paint, shutters).

   • PODS or U-Hauls (indicating tenant or owner movement).

4. Scan for mailers & signs: Are investors actively marketing in this pocket?

5. Crime mapping: Pull CMPD data to spot declining trends in minor offenses, often a sign that neighbors are investing in security and visibility.

Why It Works:

• Development doesn’t start with zoning, it starts with consumer interest.

• Renovations follow early adopters.

• Equity builds fastest in the first 12–24 months of a gentrification curve.

THE DEED WHISPERER

Read the Permit Signs Like Tarot Cards

Permit signs in Charlotte are the most overlooked investing intel, and it’s all public.

Here’s a breakdown of what different permits actually signal:

Mechanical-Only Permit (MEC)

• Usually HVAC or minor plumbing.

• Indicates landlord refresh or rental prep.

• Watch these on streets with multiple rentals. It’s a sign tenants are turning over or rent is increasing.

Renovation/Alteration Permit (REN)

• Cosmetic or structural changes.

• Likely an investor flip or BRRRR play.

• Check permit value: Low budget = lipstick job; high = full gut.

Building or Demo Permit

• These are gold. Especially if a demo is paired with RM zoning (Residential Multi-Family).

• Signals future densification, a long-term area to bank dirt

Pro Tip: Pull permit data for a ZIP code, then sort by concentration. Neighborhoods with growing permit clusters often jump 8–12 months later in price or investor chatter.

Bonus Insight: Use the Charlotte Open Data Portal and filter by permit type and neighborhood. It’s all there, just waiting to be read.

HOT TAKE

I Wouldn’t Touch High-End New Builds in South End Right Now

South End’s luxury new construction market has become a developer pissing contest and buyers are the ones left holding the overpriced bag.

What’s really going on:

• Oversupply at the top: In just the past 18 months, we’ve seen a flood of $900K+ townhomes and modern builds on postage-stamp lots.

• Interest rates hit affordability hard: That $950K loan at 7% isn’t penciling for owner-occupants anymore.

• Investor returns are upside-down: Even with short-term rental plays, the cost basis is too high to yield anything meaningful.

• Design fatigue is real: The "black window, white brick, wood slat" look? It’s been done to death. Buyers aren't wowed anymore.

The Bigger Problem:

The people who can afford these homes don’t actually want to live next to five other units that look exactly the same and have zero yard.

Luxury buyers in Charlotte are starting to favor older homes with character, bigger lots, or established neighborhoods like Dilworth or Myers Park, even if the interiors need updates.

Who Should Be Worried:

• Flippers who bought lots in 2021–22, assuming they could build and sell into the $1M+ market.

• Spec builders who didn't pre-sell.

• Airbnb investors banking on 20+ nights/month at $300/night. Those bookings are softening fast

The Smart Money is Shifting:

• Smaller, infill duplex and triplex construction in RM-zoned corridors like Belmont and Seversville.

• Cosmetic value-add flips in walkable areas just outside South End (think York Road corridor, Clanton Park, Revolution Park).

• Holding land until rezoning or TOD overlays open up new potential.

South End still has long-term value, but if you’re buying a shiny new box at top dollar, you’re not investing. You’re speculating on style. And right now, that style is losing its luster.

DEAL RADAR

A fully renovated, full-brick duplex in Elizabeth featuring two stylish 2-bed, 1-bath units with custom finishes, modern kitchens, and updated bathrooms. Each unit has its own washer and dryer. Located on a desirable corner lot with a detached garage, covered porch, and upgraded landscaping. Just a few blocks from hospitals, dining, parks, and coffee shops. A rare opportunity for income potential with the option to add an ADU.

• Price: $1,150,000 | 4BD 2BA | 3,239 SF

• Average Daily Rate (Est.): $275 per unit

• Expected Occupancy Rate: 71%

• Cap Rate: 4% — 6%

• Investor Outlook: Light-to-medium cash flow, strong equity upside.

• Rehab: None required

• Investor Play: Buy & Hold

These modern townhomes at 2505 and 2507 Elon St are located in the thriving Enderly Park neighborhood of Charlotte. Featuring sleek, contemporary design, open-concept living, and high-end finishes—including a gourmet kitchen with quartz countertops and stainless steel appliances—each home offers style and comfort. The private, fenced backyard adds outdoor charm, and the location is just minutes from Uptown Charlotte. Ideal for first-time buyers or investors, each townhome comes with its own lot.

• Price: $1,170,000 | 6BD 6BA | 3,400 SF

• Average Daily Rate (Est.): $310 per unit

• Expected Occupancy Rate: 76%

• Cap Rate: 4% — 6%

• Investor Outlook: Medium-to-high cash flow, strong equity upside.

• Rehab: None required

• Investor Play: Buy & Hold

FINAL DEED

Charlotte is a puzzle, not a lottery. You don’t win here by luck. You win by pattern recognition.

Every deal, every permit, every gentrifying pocket is a piece of a puzzle. Investors who treat Charlotte like a lottery (buying blind, chasing headlines) get average returns at best. But those who treat it like a puzzle find an asymmetric upside.

So this week, walk a block. Snap a permit sign. Talk to a neighbor. Study a street, not a stat. Real estate is local. But winning in real estate is hyperlocal.

See you on the next deal. Same porch. Same playbook.

Until next week,

Know someone who would enjoy this newsletter? Please share this with them.

Was this email forwarded to you? Subscribe here

Quick links:

• Interest in advertising? Reach out

• House hunting or selling? Connect with an agent

• Need a contractor? Post a job